What does TDC have to do with replacing a timing chain? Nothing; you line up the marks on the chain and the sprockets. TDC has nothing to do with it.
There are 3 colored links on the chain and marks on all 3 sprockets. The crankshaft sprocket will be at TDC when the mark is at 5:00, incidentally. It appears that your mark is at 4:00.
I have no idea what this recent obsession with TDC is about. This is the third I recall lately.

 

TDC is were the crankshaft keyway is at 12 o’clock, thus making sure the timing dot is at 5 o’clock.
I agree the timing marks in these photos seem to be off , causing the P0016 code!

 

There is a timing mark on the front cover at about 10 to 11 o’clock, you line this up when you turn the crank to get #1 up to TDC of the compression stroke with the notch on the back of the harmonic balancer.


See that white dot? This is the back side of the balancer

This mark, I’ve circled in yellow.

 

But TDC does not matte! Just line the darn marks on the sprockets with the colored links on the chain. For convenience you put the key at 12:00 because that will put the timing mark close to the right spot, then proceed to the intake cam line the mark to the colored link, then do the same on the exhaust, lean back and make sure everything still hits the marks done! They will only line up one way.
TDC only mattered last century. Compression exhaust does not make any difference unless you are the ECM.

 

If that mark is at 4 o’clock, then the timing will be off, right! Therefore, the piston must be at TDC on the compression stroke to start the timing sequence as you so eloquently write.